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Analyst behaviour: the geography of social interaction
(2012)
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Frederik König
- An analyst who works in Germany is more likely to publish a high (low) price target regarding a DAX30 stock if other Germany based analysts are also optimistic (pessimistic) about the same stock. This finding is not biased by the fact that DAX30 companies are headquartered in Germany. In times of bull markets, price targets of analysts who regularly exchange their opinion are higher correlated compared to other analysts. This effect vanishes in a bearish market environment. This suggests that communication among analysts indeed plays an important role. However, analysts’ incentives induce them not to deviate too much from the overall average during an economic downturn.
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Analyst behaviour: the geography of social interaction
(2013)
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Frederik König
- An analyst who works in Germany is more likely to publish a high (low) price target regarding a DAX30 stock if other Germany based analysts are also optimistic (pessimistic) about the same stock. This finding is not biased by the fact that DAX30 companies are headquartered in Germany. In times of bull markets, price targets of analysts who regularly exchange their opinion are higher correlated compared to other analysts. This effect vanishes in a bearish market environment. This suggests that communication among analysts indeed plays an important role. However, analysts’ incentives induce them not to deviate too much from the overall average during an economic downturn.
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Does social interaction destabilise financial markets?
(2013)
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Frederik König
- With this paper, I propose a simple asset pricing model that accounts for the influence from social interaction. Investors are assumed to make up their mind about an asset's price based on a forecasting strategy and its past profitability as well as on the contemporaneous expectations of other market participants. Empirically analysing stocks in the DAX30 index, I provide evidence that social interaction rather destabilises financial markets. At least, it does not have a stabilising effect.
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Does social interaction destablise financial markets?
(2012)
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Frederik König
- With this paper, I propose a simple asset pricing model that accounts for the influence from social interaction. Investors are assumed to make up their mind about an asset’s price based on a forecasting strategy and its past profitability as well as on the contemporaneous expectations of other market participants. Empirically analysing stocks of the DAX30 index, I provide evidence that social interaction rather destabilises financial markets. Based on my results, I state that at least, it does not have a stabilising effect.
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Fluctuations of social influence: evidence from the behaviour of mutual fund managers during the economic crisis 2008/09
(2012)
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Frederik König
- In this paper, I analyse the reciprocal social influence on investment decisions within an international group of roughly 2000 mutual fund managers that invested in companies of the DAX30. Using a robust estimation procedure, I provide empirical evidence that in the average a fund manager puts 0.69% more portfolio weight on a particular stock, if other fund managers increase the corresponding position by 1%. The dynamics of this influence on portfolio weights suggest that fund managers adjust their behaviour according to the prevailing market situation and are more strongly influenced by others in times of an economic downturn. Analysing the working locations of the fund managers, I conclude that more than 90% of the magnitude of influence is due to pure observation. While this form of influence varies much in time, the magnitude of influence resulting from the exchange of opinion is more or less constant.
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Fluctuations of social influence: evidence from the behaviour of mutual fund managers during the economic crisis 2008/09
(2013)
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Frederik König
- In this paper, I analyse the reciprocal social influence on investment decisions within an international group of roughly 2,000 mutual fund managers who invested in companies in the DAX30. Using a robust estimation procedure, I provide empirical evidence that the average fund manager puts 0.69% more portfolio weight on a particular stock, if his peers on average assign a weight to the corresponding position which is 1% higher compared to other stocks in the portfolio. The dynamics of this influence on the choice of portfolio weights suggest that fund managers adjust their behaviour according to the prevailing market situation and are more strongly influenced by others in times of an economic downturn. Analysing the working locations of the fund managers, I conclude that more than 90% of the magnitude of influence stems from the social learning. While this form of influence varies much over time, the magnitude of influence resulting from the exchange of opinion is more or less constant.
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The high return to private schooling in a low-income country
(2011)
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Tessa Bold
Mwangi Kimenyi
Germano Mwabu
Justin Sandefur
- Existing studies from the United States, Latin America, and Asia provide scant evidence that private schools dramatically improve academic performance relative to public schools. Using data from Kenya—a poor country with weak public institutions—we find a large effect of private schooling on test scores, equivalent to one full standard deviation. This finding is robust to endogenous sorting of more able pupils into private schools. The magnitude of the effect dwarfs the impact of any rigorously tested intervention to raise performance within public schools. Furthermore, nearly twothirds of private schools operate at lower cost than the median government school.
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Why did abolishing fees not increase public school enrollment in Kenya?
(2011)
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Tessa Bold
Mwangi Kimenyi,
Germano Mwabu
Justin Sandefur
- A large empirical literature has shown that user fees signicantly deter public service utilization in developing #countries. While most of these results reflect partial equilibrium analysis, we find that the nationwide abolition of public school fees in Kenya in 2003 led to no increase in net public enrollment rates, but rather a dramatic shift toward private schooling. Results suggest this divergence between partial- and general-equilibrium effects is partially explained by social interactions: the entry of poorer pupils into free education contributed to the exit of their more affluent peers.
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Scaling-up what works : experimental evidence on external validity in Kenyan education
(2013)
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Tessa Bold
Mwangi Kimenyi
Germano Mwabu
Alice Ng'ang'a
Justin Sandefur
- The recent wave of randomized trials in development economics has provoked criticisms regarding external validity. We investigate two concerns—heterogeneity across beneficiaries and implementers—in a randomized trial of contract teachers in Kenyan schools. The intervention, previously shown to raise test scores in NGO- led trials in Western Kenya and parts of India, was replicated across all Kenyan provinces by an NGO and the government. Strong effects of shortterm contracts produced in controlled experimental settings are lost in weak public institutions: NGO implementation produces a positive effect on test scores across diverse contexts, while government implementation yields zero effect. The data suggests that the stark contrast in success between the government and NGO arm can be traced back to implementation constraints and political economy forces put in motion as the program went to scale.
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Soziale Interaktion auf Finanzmärkten
(2013)
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Frederik König
- Ziel meiner Dissertation ist die empirische Analyse von Auswirkungen der sozialen Interaktion zwischen Akteuren auf Finanzmärkten. Die folgenden Aufsätze sind Bestandteil dieser kumulativen Dissertation:
1. Frederik König (2012): Does Social Interaction destabilise Financial Markets?
2. Frederik König (2012) : Analyst Behaviour: the Geography of Social Interaction
3. Frederik König (2012) : Fluctuations of Social Influence: Evidence from the Behaviour of Mutual Fund Managers during the Economic Crisis 2008/09
In meinem ersten Aufsatz stelle ich ein Marktpreismodell vor, welches dem Einfluss durch soziale Interaktion Rechnung trägt. Mit Hilfe dieses Modells gehe ich der Fragestellung nach, ob soziale Interaktion zwischen Marktteilnehmern eine stabilisierende oder eine destabilisierende Wirkung auf Finanzmärkte hat. Mit meinem zweiten Aufsatz untersuche ich das Verhalten von Aktienanalysten, die als wesentlicher Impulsgeber für Finanzmärkte gelten. Konkret stelle ich heraus, ob Analysten stärker von anderen Analysten beeinflusst werden, wenn diese im gleichen Land bzw. in der gleichen Stadt arbeiten oder wenn sogar ein regelmäßiger Meinungsaustausch erfolgt. Beides setzte ich ins Verhältnis zum vorherrschenden Marktumfeld. In meinem dritten Aufsatz beschäftige ich mich mit der sozialen Interaktion zwischen Fondsmanagern. Diese verwalten in etwa ein Drittel des frei handelbaren Aktienvermögens und haben folglich einen nennenswerten Einfluss auf Finanzmärkte. Mit Hilfe einer neuartigen Schätzmethode bestimme ich die Größe des sozialen Einflusses und untersuche auch hier temporale Variationen im Verhältnis zum zu Grunde liegenden Marktumfeld. Des Weiteren zerlege ich die Gesamtgröße des sozialen Einflusses in zwei Komponenten, die zum einen den Einfluss im Rahmen der reinen Beobachtung und zum anderen den Einfluss durch Kommunikation reflektieren.
