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Capital markets in the long term : demography, economic development and funded pension systems (2005)

The focus of the discussion at the conference on September 23, 2004 was on the long-term impact on capital markets and pension systems. The speakers tried to identify the direction and magnitude of potential changes as well as the likelihood of an eventual asset meltdown. The conference's objective was to combine insights from academia with those from the financial community in order to provide a more comprehensive outlook on capital market developments. Conference Reader Nr. 2005/01

News : 2/05 / Center for Financial Studies (2005)

News : 1/05 / Center for Financial Studies (2005)

"Open forum on Germany’s banking system" (2005)

Conference organized jointly by: Elena Carletti (Center for Financial Studies) Jörg Decressin (International Monetary Fund) Jan Pieter Krahnen (University of Frankfurt and Center for Financial Studies) Christian Ossig (Center for Financial Studies) Conference Reader Nr. 2006/01

Robustly optimal monetary policy with near-rational expectations (2005)

Michael Woodford

The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close enough to model-consistency. It is found that commitment continues to be important for optimal policy, that the optimal long-run inflation target is unaffected by the degree of potential distortion of beliefs, and that optimal policy is even more history-dependent than if rational expectations are assumed. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E42

News / Center for Financial Studies (2005)

CFSnewsletter is a documentation of past, present and future CFS activities in the fields of research, executive development and events. Printed versions of all issues published since 1997 can be ordered free of charge. To download the latest issues, you need ADOBE Acrobat Reader. Contact: Lut De Moor Phone: +49-(0)69-798-30060 Fax: +49-(0)69-798-30077 media_contact (AT) ifk-cfs.de

Disentangling the importance of the precautionary saving motive (2005)

Arthur Kennickell Annamaria Lusardi

We evaluate the importance of the precautionary saving motive by relying on a direct question about precautionary wealth from the 1995 and 1998 waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances. In this survey, a new question has been designed to elicit the amount of desired precautionary wealth. This allows us to assess the amount of precautionary accumulation and to overcome many of the problems of previous works on this topic. We find that a precautionary saving motive exists and affects virtually every type of household. However, precautionary savings account for only 8 percent of total wealth holdings. Even though this motive does not give rise to large amounts of wealth, particularly for young and middle-age households, it is particularly important for two groups: older households and business owners. Overall, we provide strong evidence that we need to take the precautionary saving motive into account when modeling saving behavior. Klassifizierung: D91, E21, C21

Market efficiency today (2005)

M. Hashem Pesaran

This CFS Working Paper has been presented at the CFSsymposium "Market Efficiency Today" held in Frankfurt/Main on October 6, 2005. In 2004 the Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in cooperation with the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main established an international academic prize, which is to be known as The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics. The prize will honor an internationally renowned researcher who has excelled through influential contributions to research in the fields of finance and money and macroeconomics, and whose work has lead to practice and policy-relevant results. The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics has been awarded for the first time in October 2005. The prize, sponsored by the Stiftungsfonds Deutsche Bank im Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft, carries a cash award of € 50,000. The prize will be awarded every two years and the prize holder will be appointed a "Distinguished Fellow" of the CFS. The role of media partner for the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics is to be filled by the internationally renowned publication, The Economist and the Handelsblatt, the leading German-language financial and business newspaper.

The volatility of realized volatility (2005)

Fulvio Corsi Uta Kretschmer Stefan Mittnik Christian Pigorsch

Using unobservable conditional variance as measure, latent-variable approaches, such as GARCH and stochastic-volatility models, have traditionally been dominating the empirical finance literature. In recent years, with the availability of high-frequency financial market data modeling realized volatility has become a new and innovative research direction. By constructing "observable" or realized volatility series from intraday transaction data, the use of standard time series models, such as ARFIMA models, have become a promising strategy for modeling and predicting (daily) volatility. In this paper, we show that the residuals of the commonly used time-series models for realized volatility exhibit non-Gaussianity and volatility clustering. We propose extensions to explicitly account for these properties and assess their relevance when modeling and forecasting realized volatility. In an empirical application for S&P500 index futures we show that allowing for time-varying volatility of realized volatility leads to a substantial improvement of the model's fit as well as predictive performance. Furthermore, the distributional assumption for residuals plays a crucial role in density forecasting. Klassifikation: C22, C51, C52, C53

Do consumers choose the right credit contracts? (2005)

Sumit Agarwal Souphala Chomsisengphet Chunlin Liu Nicholas S. Souleles

We find that on average consumers chose the contract that ex post minimized their net costs. A substantial fraction of consumers (about 40%) still chose the ex post sub-optimal contract, with some incurring hundreds of dollars of avoidable interest costs. Nonetheless, the probability of choosing the sub-optimal contract declines with the dollar magnitude of the potential error, and consumers with larger errors were more likely to subsequently switch to the optimal contract. Thus most of the errors appear not to have been very costly, with the exception that a small minority of consumers persists in holding substantially sub-optimal contracts without switching. Klassifikation: G11, G21, E21, E51

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