HBT interferometry and the parton-hadron phase transition
- Invited talk at the International Workshop XXX on Gross Properties of Nuclei and Nuclear Excitations - Ultrarelativistic Heavy-Ion Collisions, Jan. 13-19, 2002, Hirschegg, Austria. Report-no: LBNL-49674. We discuss predictions for the pion and kaon interferometry measurements in relativistic heavy ion collisions at SPS and RHIC energies. In particular, we confront relativistic transport model calculations that include explicitly a first-order phase transition from a thermalized quark-gluon plasma to a hadron gas with recent data from the RHIC experiments. We critically examine the "HBT-puzzle" both from the theoretical as well as from the experimental point of view. Alternative scenarios are briefly explained.
Hadronic multiparticle production in extensive air showers and accelerator experiments
- Using CORSIKA for simulating extensive air showers, we study the relation between the shower characteristics and features of hadronic multiparticle production at low energies. We report about investigations of typical energies and phase space regions of secondary particles which are important for muon production in extensive air showers. Possibilities to measure relevant quantities of hadron production in existing and planned accelerator experiments are discussed.
Measuring and managing the credit exposure of derivatives portfolios
- CONCLUSION The analysis of the exposure measurement problem has shown that the proper measurement of counterparty exposure for portfolios of derivatives transactions is a complex task that cannot be performed without making a lot of simplifying assumptions. Because of the complicated interaction of correlation effects and offsettings from different transactions, the single transaction framework which is currently used by most banks is definitely not capable of accurately determining the portfolio credit risk. When simulation techniques are applied to estimate exposure, the accuracy of exposure estimations can be increased significantly. However, a lot of modelling choices has to be made concerning the valuation of transactions and the stochastic model of underlying market rates. Because the system has to make projections of market rates into the far future, the choice of an appropriate stochastic model for market rate dynamics is crucial in order to prevent unreasonable scenarios. The predominant application of models based on Brownian Motion in today’s bank risk management therefore leads to questionable results in respect to derivatives exposure evaluation.
Integer point sets minimizing average pairwise L1 distance: What is the optimal shape of a town?
Erik D. Demaine
Sándor P. Fekete
- An n-town, n[is an element of]N , is a group of n buildings, each occupying a distinct position on a 2-dimensional integer grid. If we measure the distance between two buildings along the axis-parallel street grid, then an n-town has optimal shape if the sum of all pairwise Manhattan distances is minimized. This problem has been studied for cities, i.e., the limiting case of very large n. For cities, it is known that the optimal shape can be described by a differential equation, for which no closed-form solution is known. We show that optimal n-towns can be computed in O(n[superscript 7.5]) time. This is also practically useful, as it allows us to compute optimal solutions up to n=80.
Analyst behaviour: the geography of social interaction
- An analyst who works in Germany is more likely to publish a high (low) price target regarding a DAX30 stock if other Germany based analysts are also optimistic (pessimistic) about the same stock. This finding is not biased by the fact that DAX30 companies are headquartered in Germany. In times of bull markets, price targets of analysts who regularly exchange their opinion are higher correlated compared to other analysts. This effect vanishes in a bearish market environment. This suggests that communication among analysts indeed plays an important role. However, analysts’ incentives induce them not to deviate too much from the overall average during an economic downturn.
Über den Widerspruch von religiöser Hoffnung und politischer Analyse in Adam Smith Theorie des freien Marktes
- Die zentrale These des vorliegenden Aufsatzes ist es, dass es ein Adam Smith-Problem im traditionellen Sinne nicht gibt, aber sehr wohl einen Selbstwiderspruch in Adam Smith ökonomischer Theorie.
Der Aufsatz behandelt zunächst die enge systematische Verbindung von Smith ökonomischer und ethischer Theorie. Die Verbindung beruht auf der Annahme eines höchsten Wesens und einer daraus gefolgerten prästabilisierenden Harmonie Dem religiösen Vertrauen auf eine natürliche Ordnung korresponiert der Glaube an die Gerechtigkeit des Marktes. Smith weitere politische Analyse produziert allerdings einen Selbstwiderspruch. Smith zeigt auf, dass die unternehmerischen Eigeninteressen dem Allgemeininteresse der Gesellschaft widersprechen und die Unternehmer zudem virtuoser und erfolgreicher beim Durchsetzen ihrer eigenen Interessen agieren als andere Marktakteure. Dennoch hält Smith an der Annahme fest, der Markt entfalte eine harmonisierende und den allseitigen Wohlstand fördernde Wirkung. Diese Annahme mutiert bei seinen Epigonen zu einer ontologischen Gewissheit.
Evidence regarding clinical use of microvolt T-wave alternans
Stefan H. Hohnloser
Richard J. Cohen
- Background: Microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) testing in many studies has proven to be a highly accurate predictor of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events (VTEs) in patients with risk factors for sudden cardiac death (SCD) but without a prior history of sustained VTEs (primary prevention patients). In some recent studies involving primary prevention patients with prophylactically implanted cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), MTWA has not performed as well. Objective: This study examined the hypothesis that MTWA is an accurate predictor of VTEs in primary prevention patients without implanted ICDs, but not of appropriate ICD therapy in such patients with implanted ICDs. Methods: This study identified prospective clinical trials evaluating MTWA measured using the spectral analytic method in primary prevention populations and analyzed studies in which: (1) few patients had implanted ICDs and as a result none or a small fraction (≤15%) of the reported end point VTEs were appropriate ICD therapies (low ICD group), or (2) many of the patients had implanted ICDs and the majority of the reported end point VTEs were appropriate ICD therapies (high ICD group). Results: In the low ICD group comprising 3,682 patients, the hazard ratio associated with a nonnegative versus negative MTWA test was 13.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.5 to 30.4) and the annual event rate among the MTWA-negative patients was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.1% to 0.5%). In contrast, in the high ICD group comprising 2,234 patients, the hazard ratio was only 1.6 (95% CI: 1.2 to 2.1) and the annual event rate among the MTWA-negative patients was elevated to 5.4% (95% CI: 4.1% to 6.7%). In support of these findings, we analyzed published data from the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Trial II (MADIT II) and Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT) trials and determined that in those trials only 32% of patients who received appropriate ICD therapy averted an SCD. Conclusion: This study found that MTWA testing using the spectral analytic method provides an accurate means of predicting VTEs in primary prevention patients without implanted ICDs; in particular, the event rate is very low among such patients with a negative MTWA test. In prospective trials of ICD therapy, the number of patients receiving appropriate ICD therapy greatly exceeds the number of patients who avert SCD as a result of ICD therapy. In trials involving patients with implanted ICDs, these excess appropriate ICD therapies seem to distribute randomly between MTWA-negative and MTWA-nonnegative patients, obscuring the predictive accuracy of MTWA for SCD. Appropriate ICD therapy is an unreliable surrogate end point for SCD. Key words: Arrhythmia; Sudden cardiac death; Cardiac arrest; ICD; T-wave alternans; Surrogate endpoint; Ventricular tachyarrhythmic event; Primary prevention