Afrika südlich der Sahara
Modelling the impact of future climate and land use change on vegetation patterns, plant diversity and provisioning ecosystem services in West Africa
- Global climate change and land use change will not only alter entire ecosystems and
biodiversity patterns, but also the supply of ecosystem services. A better understanding
of the consequences is particularly needed in under-investigated regions, such as West
Africa. The projected environmental changes suggest negative impacts on nature, thus
representing a threat to the human well-being. However, many effects caused by climate
and land use change are poorly understood so far.
Thus, the main objective of this thesis was to investigate the impact of climate and
land use change on vegetation patterns, plant diversity and important provisioning
ecosystem services in West Africa. The three different aspects are separately explored
and build the chapters of this thesis. The findings help to improve our understanding of
the effects of environmental change on ecosystems and human well-being.
In the first study, the main objectives were to model trends and the extent of
future biome shifts in West Africa that may occur by 2050. Also, I modelled a trend in
West African tree cover change, while accounting for human impact. Additionally,
uncertainty in future climate projections was evaluated to identify regions with reliable
trends and regions where the impacts remain uncertain. The potential future spatial
distributions of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest were
modelled in West Africa, using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was
analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). I used climate data from 17 general
circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to
model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: 1)
reduce inter-model variability, and 2) describe trends extracted from different GCM
projections. The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and
grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the
Sahara desert by an area of 2 million km2. While savannas are predicted to contract in the
south (by 54 ± 22 × 104 km2), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to
expand (64 ± 13 × 104 km2 and 77 ± 26 × 104 km2). However, uncertainty due to different
GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen forest biome shift.
Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%).
Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the
direction of the projected climate-driven tendency from increase to decrease.
Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes)
showed a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact
suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change
and human impact in order to generate realistic future projections on woody cover.
The second study focused on the impact and the interplay of future (2050) climate
and land use change on the plant diversity of the West African country Burkina Faso.
Synergistic forecasts for this country are lacking to date. Burkina Faso covers a broad
bioclimatic gradient which causes a similar gradient in plant diversity. Thus, the impact of
climate and land use change can be investigated in regions with different levels of species
richness. The LandSHIFT model from the Centre of Environmental System research CESR
(Kassel, Germany) was adapted for this study to derive novel regional, spatially explicit
future (2050) land use simulations for Burkina Faso. Additionally, the simulations include
different assumptions on the technological developments in the agricultural sector. Oneclass
support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning method, were performed with
these land use simulations together with current and future (2050) climate projections at
a 0.1° resolution (cell: ~ 10 × 10 km). The modelling results showed that the flora of
Burkina Faso will be primarily negatively impacted by future climate and land use
changes. The species richness will be significantly reduced by 2050 (P < 0.001, paired
Wilcoxon signed-rank test). However, contrasting latitudinal patterns were found.
Although climate change is predicted to cause species loss in the more humid regions in
Southern Burkina Faso (~ 200 species per cell), the model projects an increase of species
richness in the Sahel. However, land use change is expected to suppress this increase to
the current species diversity level, depending on the technological developments. Climate
change is a more important threat to the plant diversity than land use change under the
assumption of technological stagnation in the agricultural sector.
Overall, the study highlights the impact and interplay of future climate and land
use change on plant diversity along a broad bioclimatic gradient in West Africa.
Furthermore, the results suggest that plant diversity in dry and humid regions of the tropics might generally respond differently to climate and land use change. This pattern
has not been detected by global studies so far.
Several of the plant species in West Africa significantly contribute to the
livelihoods of the population. The plants provide so-called non-timber forest products
(NTFPs), which are important provisioning ecosystem services. However, these services
are also threatened by environmental change. Thus, the third study aimed at developing a
novel approach to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on the economic
benefits derived from NTFPs. This project was carried out in cooperation with Katja
Heubach (BiK-F) who provided data on household economics. These data include 60
interviews that were conducted in Northern Benin on annual quantities and revenues of
collected NTFPs from the three most important savanna tree species: Adansonia digitata,
Parkia biglobosa and Vitellaria paradoxa. The current market prices of the NTFPs were
derived from respective local markets. To assess current and future (2050) occurrence
probabilities of the three species, I calibrated niche-based models with climate data (from
Miroc3.2medres) and land use data (LandSHIFT) at a 0.1° resolution (cell: ~ 10 × 10 km).
Land use simulations were taken from the previous study on plant diversity. Three
different niche-based models were used: 1) generalized additive models (regression
method), 2) generalized boosting models (machine learning method), and 3) flexible
discriminant analysis (classification method). The three model simulations were averaged
(ensemble forecasting) to increase the robustness of the predictions. To assess future
economic gains and losses, respectively, the modelled species’ occurrence probabilities
were linked with the spatially assigned monetary values. Highest current annual benefits
are obtained from V. paradoxa (54,111 ± 28,126 US$/cell), followed by P. biglobosa
(32,246 ± 16,526 US$/cell) and A. digitata (9,514 ± 6,243 US$/cell). However, in the
prediction large areas will lose up to 50% of their current economic value by 2050.
Vitellaria paradoxa and Parkia biglobosa, which currently reveal the highest economic
benefits, are heavily affected. Adansonia digitata is negatively affected less strongly by
environmental change and might regionally even supply increasing economic benefits, in
particular in the west and east of the investigation area. We conclude that adaptive
strategies are needed to create alternative income opportunities, in particular for women
that are responsible for collecting the NTFPs. The findings provide a benchmark for local policy-makers to economically compare different land use options and adjust existing
management strategies for the near future.
Overall, this thesis improves our understanding of the impacts of climate and land
use changes on West African vegetation patterns, plant diversity and provisioning
ecosystem services. Climate change had spatially varying impacts (positive and negative
effects) on the vegetation cover and plant diversity, while predominantly negative effects
resulted from human pressure. Regional contrasting impacts of environmental change
were also found considering the provisioning ecosystem services.
The German administration in East Africa // by John William East : a select annot. bibliogr. of the German colonial administration in Tanganyika, Rwanda and Burundi, from 1884 to 1918
John W. East
A study on the impact of mobile telecommunication on the welfare of sub saharan african countries
Hauke Heinrich Friedrich Plambeck
- Africa: A continent is waking up. Not through aid or wealth from the exploitation of natural resources, but through a technological revolution. The access to affordable mobile telecommunication. Inspired by deregulation and pioneered by local champions who have taken a lead in what is today's fastest growing mobile market in the world. There is money to be made in these markets, attracting more and more operators from the northern hemisphere.
However positive the short term impact of this revolution may be, governments should try hard to assure a market of continued competition among network operators, as this competition is the source of a self propelled creation of welfare and new opportunities, motivated from within Africa.
Chapter 1 of this thesis highlights the positive impact of mobile telecommunication on the social and economic life in Sub Saharan Africa. Chapter 2 builds on the static as well as the dynamic version of the Network Pricing Game, a model developed by Dr. Carolyn Gideon, to stress the immanent threat of network markets turning into a monopoly. This theses ends in Chapter 3 with an brief outlook on further drivers of economic growth and opportunities awaiting Sub Saharan Africa in the coming decade.
National Library (Republic of Mauritius) : Strategic Plan
- The National Library of the Republic of Mauritius was established as a body corporate under the National Library Act 1996 No. 32. The main role of the National Library of Mauritius is to build the most comprehensive collection of our national heritage by collecting, receiving and preserving all publications and productions printed and produced in Mauritius for present and future generations. The main source of its acquisition is by means of the legal deposit system as per the National Library Act 1996 which stipulates that every printer in Mauritius is required to deposit free of charge with the Director of the National Library six copies of each publication, be it a book, periodical, report, newspaper or any other printed document. The same rule applies to all the producers in Mauritius who have to deposit six copies of any non-print materials produced. To ensure that access is given to the most comprehensive collection of Mauritiana materials, the National Library has also to acquire all print and non-print materials published abroad, whose subject matter is related to Mauritius. Along with, the National Library will build a collection of foreign reference materials on different subjects of interest to Mauritius. Equally of vital importance to the National Library is the conservation of our cultural heritage – ways and means are being worked out to preserve and conserve documents for generations to come. The aim of the National Library is to become the premier library in Mauritius in the dissemination of both retrospective and current information, utilizing modern techniques and other technological advances. The National Library is at the service of the Mauritian people, for the purpose of their research, scholarship and creativity. This Strategic Plan sets out the vision, strategic management principles, goals, objectives and plan of action that will govern the National Library for the next three years.
Index to secretariats records (1891-1939) held by the Central African Archives
Elites and institutions : literature review
- Exploring elites and their relations to institutions can assist understanding the day-to-day realities of politics in Africa (Chabal and Daloz 1999, Amundsen 2001, Lindberg 2003). This review is a scoping exercise in what has been written on the subject in recent years. The main task of the review is to summarise current understandings of how elites work with and through political institutions in Africa. There is a huge literature in this subject area. We have tried to pick out a) that which is most pertinent and non-repetitive, and b) that which raises as many questions as it provides answers. On the whole we have focused on literature published in the last five to ten years and we have inclined towards the literature on Anglophone Africa. The review is presented as follows: Section 1 is an introduction to Africa’s recent political landscape and it introduces some of the major issues that appear in the literature. Section 2 provides some working definitions of elites, institutions and democratisation as three of the recurring themes in the review. Section 3 reviews literature broadly on democratisation in Africa and specifically on elections and elites. Section 4 examines how political parties have evolved over the last 15 years. Section 5 reviews the three branches of government and Section 6 briefly examines decentralisation and its relation to elites and politics. The remaining sections of the review move outside the more formal political structures to examine the media (Section 7), civil society (Section 8), women’s movements (Section 9), Trades unions (Section 10) and business associations (Section 11). The final Section 12 pulls out a number of gaps in the research that we have identified in the course of the review. Section 13 contains a complete bibliography of citations used in the review. It is crucial to remember that Africa’s experiences of democratisation are no more than 15 years old, and many scholars have cautioned that it is still very early to draw any definite conclusions (Amundsen 2001; Randall and Svasand 2002). Inhaltsverzeichnis: 1. Africa’s political landscape 3 * Diversity of ‘Africa’ 4 * Elections do not mean democracy 4 * Presidentialism 4 * Ethnicity 5 * Personal rule and patronage 5 2. Definitions 6 * Elites 6 * Political institutions 7 * Democratisation 8 3. Democratisation and elites 8 * Elections 9 * Elites and elections 13 4. Political parties 16 5. Branches of government 17 * The executive 17 * The legislature 18 * The Judiciary 20 6. Decentralisation 20 7. Media 21 * Radio 25 * Television 25 * Newspapers 25 * Internet 26 8. Civil society 26 9. Women’s movements 29 10. Trade unions 32 11. Business associations 34 12. Gaps in the research 36 13. Bibliography 38
Collapse, war and reconstruction in Uganda : an analytical narrative on state-making
- Since independence from British colonial rule, Uganda has had a turbulent political history characterised by putsches, dictatorship, contested electoral outcomes, civil wars and a military invasion. There were eight changes of government within a period of twenty-four years (from 1962-1986), five of which were violent and unconstitutional. This paper identifies factors that account for these recurrent episodes of political violence and state collapse. While colonialism bequeathed the country a negative legacy including a weak state apparatus, ethnic division, skewed development, elite polarisation and a narrow economic base, post-colonial leaders have on the whole exacerbated rather than reversed these trends. Factors such as ethnic rivalry, political exclusion, militarisation of politics, weak state institutions, and unequal access to opportunities for self-advancement help to account for the recurrent cycles of violence and state failure prior to 1986. External factors have also been important, particularly the country’s politically turbulent neighbourhood, the outcome of political instability and civil conflict in surrounding countries. Neighbourhood turbulence stemming from such factors as civil wars in Congo and Sudan has had spill-over effects in that it has allowed insurgent groups geographical space within which to operate as well as provided opportunities for the acquisition of instruments of war with which to destabilise the country. Critical to these processes have been the porosity of post-colonial borders and the inability by the Ugandan state to exercise effective control over its entire territory. By demonstrating the interplay between internal and external factors in shaping Uganda’s postcolonial experience, the paper makes an important shift away from conventional explanations that have focused disproportionately on internal processes. Lastly, the paper provides pointers to areas of further research such as the economic foundations of conflict that should ultimately strengthen our understanding of factors that combine to make state-making fail or succeed.
From a phone call to the high court : wayeyi visibility and the Kamanakao association’s campaign for linguistic and cultural rights in Botswana
- This paper by the Coordinator of the Kamanakao Association reflects upon the Association’s campaign against tribally discriminatory laws, against the social stigma of past serfdom, and for human rights and democracy in Botswana. The campaign made Wayeyi from the North West District highly visible on the national scene. Through litigation up to the High Court, the Kamanakao Association broke new ground for judicial review in the broad public interest. The advance was for the cultural rights of ‘minorities’ in general, and not only in the interest of the Wayeyi. The most favourable High Court ruling recognised Yei cultural distinctness, allowed them to secede from the tribe of their past overlords, the Tawana, and concluded a landmark case in the wider fight against state-backed tribal discrimination and denial of language rights. As an insider’s account mainly about recent events, but seen in a perspective extending to precolonial times, the paper focuses on strategies for and against change. These are the strategies effecting the power relations, in turn, between the Yeyi and the Tawana, former serfs and overlords, the Yeyi and the Government, and the Government and the Tswana speaking tribes unfairly privileged by the tribally discriminatory laws.
Violations of linguistic and cultural rights of minority groups in Botswana
Language development for literacy ; the case of Shiyeyi in Botswana
- Since independence, the government of Botswana has practiced an exclusive language policy in which only English has been used in government circles at the exclusion of all the 26 languages represented in the country, with a limited use of the national language, Setswana. However, in recent years more positive statements have been heard in Parliament, opening up to recognize the use of other languages in education and society. These statements have provided a conducive environment for Non-governmental organizations to develop other languages for use in education and out-of-school literacy. This paper focuses on the work of one such organization. It reports on a project this organization is undertaking to revive the language and culture of the Wayeyi people in North Western, and Central Botswana. It gives findings on attitudes towards Shiyeyi as a language of instruction for literacy and shows how the preference expressed for Shiyeyi has great potential for a literacy program.